The July issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) has a report on mesothelioma mortality for the first five years of the new millenium. The article is based on a report from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) analyzing mesothelioma deaths from 1999 - 2005. For that period 18,068 deaths attributed to mesothelioma cancer were reported; increasing from 2,482 deaths in 1999, to 2,704 in 2005. This death rate is considered “stable” because the ratio of deaths to total population remains more or less constant over the period analyzed. The fact that the latency period for mesothelioma ranges from twenty to forty years would seem to skew this assumption somewhat.
The CDC report goes on to note that asbestso usage peaked in the United States in 1973 at 803,000 metric tons. By 2007, asbestos use in this country had declined to 1,700 metric tons. It is interesting to note that the histories written about asbestos use in the latter half of the twentieth century often indicate that as the result of action by the Congress and the EPA, asbestos products were essentially off the shelves by 1975, and that increasing awareness of the health problems associated with asbestos had caused manufacturing usage of the mineral to begin slowing prior to federal action. The fact that asbestos usage peaked in 1973 suggests that the reduction in asbestos products began in the mid seventies and tapered off rather than dropped precipitously.
80.8% of the mesothelioma deaths over this period occurred among males. The six states where death rates were the highest are Maine, Wyoming, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Washington. The report goes on to speculate that mesothelioma deaths in the United States will peak in 2010 and will be reduced to “background levels” by 2055. On a cautionary note, the report estimates that 1.3 million American workers are still working in the presence of asbestos. Most of these are construction workers, and the report goes on to state that new exposure to asbestos is going to occur when existing structures are either remodeled or demolished. The statistical analysis projecting peak death rates and reductions is based on minimal cases of exposure in the future. New cases may develop, according to the CDC, if proper protective measures aren’t used during demolition and remediation.
The CDC reports that based over the years, professions found to be most at risk based on the mortality figures are plumbers, steamfitters, mechanical engineers, electricians and elementary school teachers. Regarding continued exposure, the report notes that in 1971, OSHA established an acceptable level of asbestos in the air on industrial sites, and that levels had been reduced across the board over the years.
The exception to this trend was a notation that in 2003, twenty percent of all construction sites tested had asbestos pollution that was above the OSHA benchmark. Many legal experts in the asbestos liability field remain skeptical about the effective end of asbestos exposure in the U.S. as long as the level of exposure on construction sites remains elevated to a significant degree. Asbestos claims will continue to be filed against asbestos manufacturers present and past; not only mesothelioma but asbestosis andCOPD continue to take their toll among workers and military veterans regardless of statistical speculation.
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